"Nature abhors a Vacuum" - Aristotle.
For quite sometime, I have been reading and re-reading a book of Frederick Forsythe, called Icon. Apart from being a favorite book of mine, it has some rather interesting viewpoints about replacing a leading player in Political Power.
In the book, one of the chief protagonists makes an observation that, if we are to replace a powerful figure in the political sphere - irrespective of whether he or she is a tyrant or a benevolent ruler - simply discrediting or assassination will not work. We shall have to have a equally powerful candidate ready to occupy the vacuum left when that person is removed. This is because, some unfavorable person may take over the position, nullifying our efforts.
A prime example of this is the Israeli reaction after the Massacre at the 1972 Munich Olympic Games. The rather superlative Israel secret service, Mossad, launched Operation Wrath of God or Mivtza Elohim and Operation Spring of Youth. Ostentiously, it aimed at assassinating those who were responsible for Munich, for revenge, for demoralizing the PLO & for preventing future attacks. Thus the operation functioned not just to punish the perpetrators of Munich but also to disrupt and deter future acts. The results were there - for quite a period PLO was not effective.
But was the effect long lasting? As we can all see - it was not. The mission was flawlessly executed, as far as can be ascertained, as seen by the weakness of the PLO in the aftermath... But, then it re-established itself & is back in the business of terrorizing & taking lives. Because the void left after the assassinations have been re-filled, as Mossad failed to grasp the opportunity to subvert the movement by hoisting its own people into the ensuing void after the assassinations.
One aspect of this strategy which is to be borne in mind is that, efforts are thus divided into two roads - removing the current incumbent, and nurturing and protecting the favorable , equally powerful replacement. Well, no powerful person would like a potential rival on the rise to remain on the scene for long... & no powerless puppet will be acceptable... not for long.
A powerful concept, implementation is hard, but the main boon is that very few things are left to chance. And as the saying goes, good plans are those which do not depend on chance, but have been made with all scenarios in mind.
As for Icon, the story starts on that premise and builds up to a rather spell-binding read. Recommended.
In the book, one of the chief protagonists makes an observation that, if we are to replace a powerful figure in the political sphere - irrespective of whether he or she is a tyrant or a benevolent ruler - simply discrediting or assassination will not work. We shall have to have a equally powerful candidate ready to occupy the vacuum left when that person is removed. This is because, some unfavorable person may take over the position, nullifying our efforts.
A prime example of this is the Israeli reaction after the Massacre at the 1972 Munich Olympic Games. The rather superlative Israel secret service, Mossad, launched Operation Wrath of God or Mivtza Elohim and Operation Spring of Youth. Ostentiously, it aimed at assassinating those who were responsible for Munich, for revenge, for demoralizing the PLO & for preventing future attacks. Thus the operation functioned not just to punish the perpetrators of Munich but also to disrupt and deter future acts. The results were there - for quite a period PLO was not effective.
But was the effect long lasting? As we can all see - it was not. The mission was flawlessly executed, as far as can be ascertained, as seen by the weakness of the PLO in the aftermath... But, then it re-established itself & is back in the business of terrorizing & taking lives. Because the void left after the assassinations have been re-filled, as Mossad failed to grasp the opportunity to subvert the movement by hoisting its own people into the ensuing void after the assassinations.
One aspect of this strategy which is to be borne in mind is that, efforts are thus divided into two roads - removing the current incumbent, and nurturing and protecting the favorable , equally powerful replacement. Well, no powerful person would like a potential rival on the rise to remain on the scene for long... & no powerless puppet will be acceptable... not for long.
A powerful concept, implementation is hard, but the main boon is that very few things are left to chance. And as the saying goes, good plans are those which do not depend on chance, but have been made with all scenarios in mind.
As for Icon, the story starts on that premise and builds up to a rather spell-binding read. Recommended.
